The Weight of the Teiva

If I were such a prolific author that I would have a magnum opus, I suppose this would be it. To this day, there are still people who identify me as "that guy who wrote the thing on the teiva."

It is told that one year, on a 12th Grade chumash test, Rav Moshe Heinemann שליט"א asked his students how to calculate the weight of the Noah's Ark. He did not ask for an answer, he simply asked how one would go about figuring it out. These are the calculations. And the answers:

Later on in the Parsha, (8:4), Rashi calculates based on the rate at which the waters of the flood receded, that the ark was submerged 11 amos in the water. A variety of commentaries deal with the calculation cited by Rashi and its validity, most notably the Ramban. The Sifsei Chachamim quotes the Nali"t as saying that the figure of 11 amos is only a minimum but it could have been more. There are a number of problems raised with different aspects of the calculation, some of which will be dealt with later on. Nevertheless, if the words of Rashi are taken at face value, they hold within them the key to unlocking this mystery. With the application of a single principle, the weight of the ark can be calculated. The law required for this calculation is Archimedes' Principle which states that the weight of a body floating in water is equal to the weight of the water it displaces. The ark's virtually cubic structure (according to Rashi) makes the measurement of water displacement easy to achieve. The ark was 300x50x30 amos³ in volume (Breishis 6:15). Therefore, the water displaced by the ark was 300x50x11 = 165,000 amos³. 

The next step, of course, is to convert the figure of cubic amos into conventional measures. Unfotunately, we are unsure as to the exact measure of the amah. There are three primary opinions amongst the contemporary poskim as to the actual length of the amah: Chazon Ish, R' Moshe Feinstein and GRA"CH Noeh. Because of this disagreement, they will differ on the measure of the ark's water displacement and therefore, the final figure for the weight of the ark will be different according to each. The following is a chart calculating the water displacement in cm³ based upon each of the opinions.

Metric to Imperial conversion table below

	Chazon Ish	R' Moshe Feinstein	GRA"CH Noeh
Length of amah	57.66 cm.	53.98 cm.	48 cm.
Volume of cubic amah (length/100)3	0.192 m3	0.157 m3	0.111 m3
Calculation	= 165000 x 0.192 ≈ 31630	= 165000 x 0.157 ≈ 25950	= 165000 x 0.111 ≈ 18250
Water Displacement	31630 m3	25950 m3	18250 m3

Now that we have determined the amount of water displaced by the ark, all we have to do is calculate how much that water weighed. Then by Archimedes' Principle we can assume that the ark weighed the same amount. This, however, is not necessarily so simple. The density of sea water is slightly more than that of regular water at approximately 1025 kg/m³. This figure usually remains about the same, without significant deviation, regardless of the exact temperature. The only drastic changes are observed when the water reaches extreme conditions such as freezing or boiling.

The first difficulty encountered is that during the initial 40 days of the flood, the waters were boiling hot (Rosh HaShanah 12a). This would change the density of the water substantially and consequently interfere with the calculation. However, it is important to note that Rashi's calculation is based on the rate at which the water receded after the 150 days which followed the 40 days of destruction. By that time, the waters had calmed down and most probably dropped to a more moderate temperature. Therefore, it can be assumed that the temperature of the water is a negligible factor in the calculation of the water density. However, what does seem problematic is that Rashi brings in the figure of 11 amos in 7:17 when the waters were at their highest intensity. It is almost certain that the density of the water at this point was much less than it was 190 days later. If the ark was calculated to have been submerged 11 amos by a calculation based on cooler waters, that figure should presumably be greater at the time of the actual flood.

The next issue of question in this calculation is the fact that the water was not necessarily pure sea water. It is suggested in Rashi (6:14) that the water contained sulfur. The presence of this sulfur and whatever other solvents in solution with the water could change the density of the water and affect the accuracy of the calculation greatly. This is only a problem, of course, if the words of Rashi are taken literally. The Sifsei Chachamim seem to suggest that what Rashi means is that the sulfur caused the heating of the water. Even if the interpretation is as originally perceived, it is possible that the ratio of solute to solvent was such that it would not have affected the density anyway. Therefore, for the purposes of this calculation I have chosen to ignore whatever effects the sulfur could have had on the water density and thus we are left with approximate figure of 1025 kg/m³. Based on this figure, these are the final calculations of the weight of the ark according to the three aforementioned opinions:

Chazon Ish	R' Moshe Feinstein	GRA"CH Noeh
31630 m3	25950 m3	18450 m3
x 1025 kg/m3
32420750 kg	26598750 kg	18706250 kg

In conclusion, considering the relevant opinions, it would appear that the ark weighed somewhere between 18 and 33 thousand metric tons. In comparison with other famous ships, the Queen Mary weighed 73,850 tons. It was 309 m long, about twice as long as the ark. The Titanic weighed approximately 42,000 tons. Of course, this refers to the weight of those vessels without anyone inside whereas the above calculation for the teiva included the inhabitants.

Table of Metric Conversions
57.66 cm	=	22.7 in.
53.98 cm	=	21.25 in.
48 cm.	=	18.9 in.
31630 m3	=	1117003 ft3
25950 m3	=	916416 ft3
18450 m3	=	651556 ft3
25o C	=	77o F
1025 kg/m3	=	2260 lb/61024 in3(35.3 ft3)
32420750 kg	=	71475519 lb = 35737.8 tons
26598750 kg	=	58640206 lb = 29320.1 tons
18706250 kg	=	41240222 lb = 20620.1 tons
6372500 m	=	20907152 ft
53 cm	=	20.87 in.

The Constant Rate of Recession

No, this has nothing to do with the American economy. There is another difficulty with the calculation that Rashi uses to conclude that the teiva was submerged 11 amos. How could Rashi base his calculation on the depth of the water decreasing at a constant rate. One can generally assume that when water decreases, it does so at a constant rate of volume. However, mathematically, if the volume of a sphere decreases at a constant rate, the rate of change of the depth will increase as the waters become shallower. The shallower the water gets, the faster it will decrease depth-wise. How then could Rashi assume that the depth decreased at a constant rate? This is the question posed by מהרי"ל דיסקין. He gives his own answers to this question. One, for instance, is that the waters receded, the ground became more saturated which slowed down the overall receding process and hence balanced out the constant rate of change of depth. But a rebbe of mine from Yeshivas Ohr Yerushalayim posed this question of none other than Nobel Prize winner Yisrael Aumann. He answered simply that mathematically, none of this is needed. True, the rate of change of depth is not directly proportional to the rate of change of volume. However, considering the size of the globe, the difference between the two within the scope with which we are dealing is negligible and would not affect Rashi's calculation. Is this true? The short answer is "Yes". The longer answer requires a little Calculus.

The radius of Earth is 6372500 m. To make things simple we will convert this to amos. Instead of using three separate measures of the amah, we will keep things neat and use an average figure of 53 cm. (6372500 ÷ 0.53 = 12023585) That translates to 12023585 amos. To make things simpler, we will round it off to 12000000 amos. This will have little effect on the final outcome. This figure will be called r_w.

The standard equation for volume:

V_w= 4/3πr_w³

Through implicit differentiation:

ΔV= 4πr_w² Δr,

where ΔV is the rate of change of volume and Δr is the rate of change of radius. We have already set r_w to be 12000000 and Δr is ¼ (amos/day according to Rashi). Therefore,

ΔV= 4π (12000000)² ¼

ΔV= 4.524 x 10¹⁴ (constant)

The goal of these calculations is to see whether or not Δr changes significantly over the course of the decreasing of the water. To see how much Δr changes, we must switch around the equation to define Δr and instead of using the figure of 12000000 for the radius, we will use the new radius when the top of the mountains became visible, 11999985.

As stated before, ΔV= 4πr² Δr

Therefore, Δr₂ = ΔV/ 4πr_new²

Δr₂ = 4.524 x 10¹⁴/ 4π(11999985)²

Δr₂ = 0.2500006250012

This means that if the waters were receding at a rate of change of depth of 0.25 amos per day when they began receding, then 60 days later they were receding only 0.0000006250012 amos/day faster, a rather negligible amount indeed.

QED

How many בקשות in יעלה ויבוא

Since we are about to say יעלה ויבוא numerous times (perhaps as many as 40 times) I figured it would be a good time to explore this:

A friend once approached with an interesting project - to calculate the total number of בקשות in יעלה ויבוא. Now, of course, that's not as simple as it seems. It is not simple addition. It involves a lot of multiplication.

So let's dive into it:

יעלה | ויבוא | ויגיע | ויראה | וירצה | וישמע | ויפקד | ויזכר	= 8
(Keep in mind that all the above verbs will apply to all of the following nouns:)
זכרוננו | ופקדוננו | וזיכרון אבותינו | וזיכרון משיח בן דוד עבדך | וזיכרון ירושלים עיר קדשך | וזיכרון כל עמך בית ישראל	x 6
	= 48
(And then the following modify all of the above:)
|לפניך לפליטה | לטובה | לחן | ולחסד | ולרחמים | לחיים ולשלום	x 7
So the entire first section	= 336
זכרנו ה' אלוקינו בו לטובה | ופקדנו בו לברכה | והושיענו בו לחיים טובים	+ 3
	= 339
Now we add the final portion:
ובדבר ישועה | ורחמים	= 2
חוס | וחננו | ורחם עלינו | והושיענו	x 4
	= 8
So the final count is 339 + 8	= 347

Wow, 347 בקשות packed into one small תפילה!

The Search for Worthy ... Humans

In the end of פרק ו, Koheles is in search of the worthy man, free of sin. פסוק כ"ח says: "אדם אחד מאלף מצאתי ואשה בכל אלה לא מצאתי." I have found one man in a thousand. And a women in all of these I have not found. I'm not quite sure how to understand this and right now, I'm not going to try. But R' Chaim Kanievsky has a startling ha'ara on this pasuk which vastly changes how we approach it mathematically.

If we were to look at this pasuk statistically, one would say that the ratio of worthy men is 1:1000 and of worthy women is 0. Not so, says R' Chaim. In no place do we ever find the word "אדם" referring only to males. It refers to Man as a species. Therefore, we must view the 1000 as being a mixture of men and women, presumably an even mixture of 500 and 500. Koheles therefore tells us that one in a thousand human beings are worthy. And within this thousandth, he found none to be women. Although this doesn't change the state of the women, it does change the ratio of worthiness for the men. Instead of a 1:1000 worthiness ratio, according to R' Chaim Kanievsky's interpretation of the pasuk, it is 1:500.

Can you Count to 70?

Question: How many males are counted as coming to Mitzrayim with Yaakov? One thing is for sure, it wasn't 70. I still have not been able to figure out how all the numbers worked - who were the 66 mentioned in 46:26 and the 70 in 46:27? 66+3 = 69, the last time I checked. If you add up all of the children and grandchildren, it does come out to 70 but then it should have been 67 and then 70. All that aside, it was not only males who were counted. Dinah is counted along with her brothers which is understandable. Serach bas Asher is counted as well which is slightly more puzzling. One must assume she was not the only granddaughter. From Rashi (46:27) it seems Yocheved was somehow part of the 70 as well.

While I was not able to find anything explaining why these particular women figured in the count as opposed to others, I did see an interesting insight into the pesukim in consideration of that fact. Tzeror HaMor and Emes L'Yaakov both point out a discrepency in the per-wife tallies found in the pesukim. The numbers for Rachel ("arba'ah asar") and Bilhah ("shiv'ah") are of the masculin form. The numbers for Leah ("sheloshim veshalosh") and Zilpah ("sheish esreih") are feminine. They both explain that Leah and Zilpah both had women counted among their offspring - Dinah from Leah and Serach from Zilpah. Therefore their numbers are delivered in feminine. Rachel and Bilhah had no feminine offspring counted and thus their numbers are in masculine.

One might wonder why this is so, considering that the generic plural is usually masculine by default. However, Emes L'Yaakov points out that the word "nefesh" which the number is qualifying is feminine. So the default gender of the number for "nefesh" should be feminine. Rachel and Bilhah were the exceptions.

The Probability of the Goral

In pasuk 26:54, the Torah explains how the land was divided amongst the tribes. Rashi explains exactly how the lots were picked to determine each tribe's portion.

Even though the portions were Divinely predetermined, a lot-drawing process was used to assign each tribe their portion. Rashi explains that one drum was filled with 24 pieces of paper. On 12 pieces of paper were written the names of the 12 tribes. On the other 12 were written the 12 portions that were to be assigned to the tribes. Each Nasi approached the drum and picked out two pieces of paper. One paper had the name of his tribe written on it and the other the prescribed portion of land in Eretz Yisrael. The purpose of this exercise was to prove the Divinity of division plan that allotted each tribe its portion and appease any tribe who felt it might be unfair. As such, I believe that a miracle of this type may be more greatly appreciated if we knew exactly how unlikely it would have been to happen naturally.

Suppose we had a prescribed list of which portion was to be assigned to which tribe. What would be the odds of each Nasi picking out both the name of his tribe and also the corresponding piece of land that had already been prescribed? Let us start with the first Nasi. He has 24 pieces of paper to choose from. He must pick two specific pieces of paper out of the drum. The odds of taking the first one correctly would be 1/24 and then the odds of taking the second correctly would be 1/23. However, since the two papers were taken together, the order does not matter. The rules of probability theory state that if the order of the choices is not relevant, than the odds must be multiplied by the number of possible sequences which, in this case, is two. So the odds of the first Nasi picking the right pieces is 2/(24 x 23). With 22 pieces of paper remaining, the odds of the second Nasi picking correctly will be 2/(22 x 21). And so on. The last Nasi's odds will be 2/(2 x 1) which is 1. That means that he will definitely pick the right ones. That is understandable. By the rules of probability theory, in order to find the odds of all the Nesiim picking correctly, we must multiply each Nasi's odds together. Thus, the odds may be generalized as

212

(24 x 23 x 22 x 21...x 2 x 1)

24 x 23 x 22 x 21....x 2 x 1 is referred to as 24 factorial and expressed as 24! Thus the final expression is 2¹²/24!. When all is totalled, the odds of the draw falling out exactly as planned without any Divine intervention would have been one in 151,476,000,000,000,000,000.

This calculation is based on Rashi's explanation in the chumash according to the Midrash Tanchuma. However, Rashi (actually written by Rashbam, Rashi's grandson,) in the gemara (Bava Basra 122a) states clearly that two drums were used. This will alter the calculation somewhat. The first Nasi would have a 1/12 chance of picking his tribe's name from the tribe drum and a 1/12 chance of picking the correct portion from the portion drum. The fact that the order does not matter will not affect the odds in this case because the choices are made from two separate groups. The odds for both drums are multiplied and thus, the first Nasi's odds will be 1/12². The odds of the second Nasi will be 1/11². And so on. The total odds will be:

1

122 x 112 x 102 x 92 x 82 x 72 x 62 x 52 x 42 x 32 x 22 x 12

This can, in fact, be simplified as 1/12!². The final odds will be one in 229,442,532,802,560,000. This is approximately 660 times more probable than the odds according to Rashi on the chumash.

Just to get an idea of the extent of this improbability, the odds of winning the Powerball Jackpot are approximately one in 175 million. That is over 1.3 billion times more likely to happen than this, according to Rashi on the gemara, and over 860 billion times more likely according to Rashi on the chumash. The odds of getting fatally hit by lightning in a given year are approximately 1 in 2.4 million. In fact, it is more likely for one to win the Powerball twice in one week or get fatally hit by lightning two-and-a-half times in one year than for the goral's results to have been produced naturally. This is a veritable testimony to the extent of the miracle that occurred and the Divinity of the apportioning of Eretz Yisroel to the twelve tribes.

תשע"ד: A similar drawing came up this week in דף יומי on :תענית כ"ז regarding the גורל used to determine the order of the משמרות in the בית שני. According to רש"י's understanding, there was a similar miracle at play. The probability associated with that drawing is discussed here.

Counting the Judges

In the end of Parshas Balak, (pasuk 25:5), Moshe passes on HaShem's command to carry out justice upon those who worshipped Ba'al Pe'or.

Rashi states that there were 88,000 "Dayanei Yisroel" and cites the gemara at the end of the first perek of Sanhedrin. However, the gemara over there clearly calculates the number of Dayanei Yisroel to be 78,600¹. Of course the obvious easy way out would be to say that there is an error in our version of Rashi, which would require only the replacing of the word shemonas with the word shiv'as to get close enough to the true number. This, in fact, seems to be the version of Rashi that the Ramban had. However, whenever this is avoidable it is best not to rely on such an answer and to justify our reading of Rashi. But is it avoidable in this instance?

Perhaps, it is possible that Rashi is not referring to the actual number given in Sanhedrin but to the calculation done there. Just as when B'nei Yisroel were 603,550 the number of dayanim was 78,600 the number of dayanim based on B'nei Yisroel's current population would be around 88,000. The next step, then, is to calculate what population would require 88,000 dayanim. Being that the dayanim included judges of groups of 1000, 100, 50 and 10 the following equation is given:

88,000	= (x/1000) + (x/100) + (x/50) + (x/10) (where x = total population)
	= (100x + 20x + 10x + x)/1000 (multiplying by 1000/1000, i.e. 1)
	= 131x/1000 (131 judges per 1000 citizens)
x	= 88,000,000/131
x	= 671,755 (rounded down)

A population of close to 672,000 is needed to necessitate 88,000 dayanim. This is an odd number since none of the recorded censuses rendered a number anywhere near this. But as clearly shown in the very Rashi in question, there was to be a large population decrease before B'nei Yisroel would reach the figure of 601,730 given in Pinchas. To justify this figure of 671,755 we must account for 70,000 lost lives. The only definite casualty count we are given is the 24,000 who perished in the plague following the worship of Ba'al Pe'or. That still leaves 46,00 lives unaccounted for. Starting from Beha'aloscha there were a number of catastrophic incidents recorded in which many fell from B'nei B'nei Yisroel. However, many of these may not be considered in this particular calculation. If B'nei Yisroel did in fact reach a population as large as we are suggesting then it must have happened gradually from the time of the census in Bemidbar to the time that they began their decline to the figure given in Pinchas. Therefore, since the individual plagues from Beha'aloscha to Korach were still in the second year and, for the most part, immediately after the census in Bemidbar we may not consider them in the decline of the population toward the figure of 601,730.

We are left, then, with only three incidents to consider. The first is the episode following the death of Aharon when B'nei Yisroel began to return toward Mitzrayim and B'nei Levi ran after them (see Rashi 26:13). The Yerushalmi records that only eight (or seven, see Rashi and the Yerushalmi inside) families were wiped out from Yisroel in that incident. This would seem to represent a significant loss but perhaps not 46,000.

The second is the episode with the snakes (Bemidbar 21) where, as recorded in the Mishna (Rosh HaShanah 29a), those who were bitten and did not have appropriate kavana when shown the copper snake perished. Here, too, there is no significant loss recorded but only that proper kavana was required for the snake to cure you. Before the cure, however, the pasuk states (pasuk 6) that a great multitude perished from Yisroel. We are not given any further information, though, on the number of casualties².

Finally, there is the plague of Ba'al Pe'or. That leads into a discussion as to what in fact transpired besides the loss of 24,000 in the plague. From the fact that the Torah refers to a magefa, it is doubtful that this refers to those killed by the shoftim. So how many people did the shoftim kill? The Ramban (on this pasuk) quotes a Yerushalmi, the simple reading of which implies that each shofet killed two men as commanded by Moshe. This would render well over 150,000 casualties. Ramban, however, concludes that the figure given by the Yerushalmi is just referring to how many would have been killed had Moshe's command been carried out but in the end the shoftim never had a chance to do so and they didn't kill a soul. Perhaps it is possible to take this idea of the Ramban that the shoftim were interrupted before having a chance to complete their mission, but to suggest that they had already begun to carry it out when they were interrupted. With or without such a supposition, one could suggest that in some way, these three incidents combined for a grand total of 46,000 fatalities. The other 24,000 died in the magefa. Now we have accounted for all 70,000 lives and all the figures work out.

Nevertheless, it is doubtful that Rashi actually wrote 88,000 and had this convoluted calculation in mind. Rather, it is more reasonable to assume that this version of Rashi is a mistake and that he originally wrote 78,000, particularly because the Ramban had such a reading of Rashi. However, I am not the first to try and justify the figure of 88,000. The Margaliyos HaYam on the gemara in Sanhedrin cites the sefer Techeles Mordechai who offers a calculation based on a population of 603,550:

603	shoftim over a thousand
6,035	shoftim over a hundred
12,071	shoftim over fifty
60,355	shoftim over ten
70	zekeinim
276	(12x23 small Sanhedrin for each tribe)
72	(12x6 Nesi'im for each tribe)
8,580	Levi'im
=88,002

There are a number of details involved in this figure that may be questionable. Firstly, we have previously determined that before the sin of Ba'al Pe'or the population was at least 625,000. Also, there is no source that indicates that all these different parties were included in the term "Dayanei Yisroel." The gemara in Sanhedrin certainly did not include them. Then Rashi's comment on this pasuk would have absolutely nothing to do with the gemara and from the text of Rashi it seems that Rashi himself cited the gemara in Sanhedrin. So, the conclusion remains that the proper reading of Rashi is most likely 78,000 rather than 88,000.

¹Although it is not the subject of this piece, it is interesting to note the various discussions concerning the calculation in Sanhedrin. The Yad Ramah and one opinion in Tosafos state that the shoftim were all over 60 and were not part of the general population. Another opinion in Tosafos states that the shoftim of 50 were taken from the shoftim of ten, the shoftim of 100 were taken from the shoftim of 50, etc. This, however, is not in accordance with the Yerushalmi quoted here by the Ramban. See also Margaliyos HaYam who raises a number of interesting questions regarding the figure given there. It bothered me, though, that the calculation is based on 600,000 not 603,550 which would render a different total.

²The Zohar in Parshas Balak cites an opinion that this pasuk is referring to Tzelafchad alone for he was the leader of his tribe (Source: Ta'ma D'Kra, R' Chaim Kunyevsky)

Omer Counting in Different Bases

My father-in-law showed me a ספר that discusses whether or not you can fulfill your obligation to count the עומר using other base systems besides decimal. This a good case where the question is far more interesting than the answer. Surely, one should not do that. However, it was a very interesting concept I had never thought of before. So, I added a widget on the blog's sidebar which will display the day of the Omer in various relevant bases.

On the insistence of reader Pi (that's his shorter name), I have added base 7 as well as a pick-your-own-base section.

Here is the excerpt from the ספר.

Happy π Day

We wish you all a happy Pi Day, today being March 14th which, in the US anyway, is expressed as 3-14. Pi day was first observed in the year 1593. Ok, I'm just making that up (and rounding.) Just to give this some semblance of a Torah flavour, here is our post on Pi in the Torah 

In European countries where the day is written before the month, Pi Day is observed on April 31. For information on that, you would have needed to contact me this past Sunday morning at 2:30 am.

והמבין יבין.

Here are 10 ways to celebrate Pi Day, including this young chap who memorized 2,552 digits (eat your heart out, Brodsky.)

10,000 Kikars

Someone just sent me a brilliant piece explaining a very difficult תוספות regarding the 10,000 ככר of silver which המן gave for the extermination of the Jews. Check it out!